The art of the "fiscal cliff" deal

Nobody said it would be easy.

Senators voted in the pre-dawn hours of New Year's Day to pass the long-sought agreement on the "fiscal cliff" and the House readies for its turn as soon as today, which, if the House passes it, would officially avert the tax hikes and spending cuts that technically took effect at midnight (the deal, when signed by the president, will make the new tax rates and spending retroactive to midnight).

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Biden advises not to predict outcome of "cliff" deal

How did the politicians involved get to their final agreement? Here's the rundown, according to officials familiar with the talks and with the White House's thinking:

Friday through Sunday: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's opening offer Friday night to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was a $750,000 income tax threshold and no jobless benefits and no extension of the earned-income tax credit and other low-income tax breaks, means-testing Medicare, and the Bush era estate tax rates. Offers bounced back and forth Saturday and on Sunday, Reid opted out and handed talks over to Vice President Joe Biden (at McConnell's suggestion). President Obama, Reid and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi were in tandem through the talks. Delaying the federal spending cuts, or sequester, fell out of the talks on Sunday but McConnell came down to $550,000 in income tax threshold and some estate tax concessions reflected in the final deal.

Sunday, 8 p.m. ET: Mr. Obama and senior staff met in the Oval Office to discuss their final counter-offer to McConnell. The president set the $400K and $450K income threshold with one-year of jobless benefits and some delay of the sequester. Biden and McConnell talked through the night. Their last call was at 12:45 a.m.

After that, Mr. Obama and Biden met in the Oval until 2 a.m. to go over final details. Mr. Obama sent his legislative liaison Rob Nabors to Capitol Hill at 2 a.m. to begin drafting a bill with Senate Democrats. Biden and McConnell spoke again at 6:45 a.m. The rest of Monday was devoted to resolving the sequester impasse.

Monday, 9 p.m. ET: Biden and McConnell sealed the deal by telephone (Biden spoke to McConnell after clearing final details with Mr. Obama). The president then called Reid and Pelosi for one final OK and the deal was announced/leaked/confirmed.

The officials also pointed out that to get to the final deal, moving Republicans from a position of no tax increases in debt ceiling debate to tax increases through tax reform after Mr. Obama's re-election to nothing more than $1 million in higher rates and now to $400,000 and $450,000 thresholds is a significant policy and political victory (worth $620 billion over 10 years).

When the big deal talks failed before Christmas, Mr. Obama's biggest goal was to get GOP buy-in on higher tax rates for the wealthy. It is regarded as one of the most significant policy victories in two decades, the officials said.

Compromising on the two-month sequester was difficult, the officials added. The White House wanted a full year of waiving the sequester but there was no time to negotiate the difficult policy details (the sequester talks took literally all of Monday).

As for the deal's effect on the deficit, it does not cut the deficit relative to what would have occurred if all the fiscal cliff tax cuts had been erased (meaning all Bush tax cuts expired) and the sequester kicked in full force. But, relative to a baseline that assumes all existing tax policy would have continued, the deal raises $620 billion in revenue. The Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) fix is not counted by the WH, for example, because its extension was assumed in the existing policy baseline (that doesn't mean it won't cost anything; just that the White House doesn't count the cost).

The jobless benefit extension for one year cost $30 billion and that is not paid for. The Medicare "doc fix" is paid for by savings that will be taken from other provider payouts in Medicare. It costs $31 billion, meaning those provider cuts will pay for protecting doctors from a 27 percent automatic cut in premiums.

And $12 billion in new revenue comes from allowing 401Ks and other retirement instruments into Roth IRAs. This is the revenue that forms half of the offset of the two-month sequester delay. The other $12 billion will come from a 50-50 split of non-defense and defense cuts.

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Senate Approves 'Fiscal Cliff' Deal, Sends to House

Two hours after a midnight deadline for action, the Senate passed legislation early New Year's Day to avert the so-called fiscal cliff with an overwhelming vote of 89-8.

Senate passage set the stage for a final showdown in the House, where a vote could come as early as today.

"While neither Democrats nor Republicans got everything they wanted, this agreement is the right thing to do for our country and the House should pass it without delay," President Obama said in a statement shortly after the vote.

"There's more work to do to reduce our deficits, and I'm willing to do it. But tonight's agreement ensures that, going forward, we will continue to reduce the deficit through a combination of new spending cuts and new revenues from the wealthiest Americans."

The bill extends Bush-era tax cuts permanently for individuals making less than $400,000 per year and couples making less than $450,000 but allows the top marginal tax rate on incomes above those levels to rise to 39.6 percent.

Capital gains taxes would rise to 20 percent from 15 percent.

The measure would raise the estate tax from 35 to 40 percent for estates larger than $5 million, prevent the alternative minimum tax from hammering millions of middle-class workers and extend unemployment benefits for one year.

'Fiscal Cliff': Lawmakers Scramble for Last-Minute Deal Watch Video

Lawmakers also decided at the last minute to use the measure to prevent a $900 pay raise for each member of Congress due to take effect this spring.

The steep "sequester" budget cuts scheduled to go into effect with the New Year -- a $1.2 trillion hit to defense and domestic programs -- would be postponed for two months.

"I've said all along our most important priority is protecting middle-class Americans, this legislation does that," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said early this morning prior to the vote.

The deal at hand does little to address the nation's long-term debt woes, however, and does not entirely solve the problem of the "fiscal cliff."

Indeed, the last-minute compromise -- far short from a so-called grand bargain on deficit reduction -- could set up a new showdown on the same spending cuts in two months amplified by a brewing fight on how to raise the debt ceiling beyond $16.4 trillion. That new fiscal battle has the potential to eclipse the "fiscal cliff" in short order.

Reid said he is "disappointed" they were unable to achieve a broader deal but that the compromise was necessary.

"We tried," he said. "If we did nothing, the threat of a recession is very real."

Speaking after Reid, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., called the deal an "imperfect solution" and noted this should not be the model on how things get done in the Senate.

McConnell also thanked Vice President Joe Biden, who visited Capitol Hill late Monday night and brokered the deal with Senate Republicans.

The measure must now move to the Republican-led House.

Five Senate Republicans and three Democrats voted against the plan, but the large margin of passage was seen as boosting the bill's prospects in the House, even though fiscal conservatives were poised to vehemently oppose the deal when it comes to the floor for a vote.

House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio said the House would not vote on any Senate-passed measure "until House members, and the American people, have been able to review" it.

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Syria starts 2013 with aerial strikes and clashes

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syrians woke on New Year's Day to countrywide aerial bombardment, while President Bashar al-Assad's forces and rebels fighting to topple him clashed on the outskirts of the capital.

Residents of Damascus entered the new year to the sound of artillery hitting southern and eastern districts that form a rebel-held crescent on the outskirts of the capital, the center of which is still firmly under government control.

In the center, soldiers manning checkpoints fired celebratory gunfire at midnight, causing alarm in a city where streets were largely deserted.

"How can they celebrate? There is no 'Happy New Year'," Moaz al-Shami, an opposition activists who lives in the capital's central Mezzeh district, said over Skype, his voice trembling with anger.

He said rebel fighters attacked one checkpoint in the district of Berzeh early on Tuesday. Opposition groups said mortar bombs hit the southwest suburb of Daraya, where the army launched a military offensive on Monday to retake the battered district.

Assad's air force pounded Damascus's eastern suburbs, as well as rebel-held areas in the second city Aleppo, and several rural towns and villages, opposition activists said.

An estimated 45,000 people have been killed in the revolt, which started in early 2011 with peaceful protests demanding democratic reforms but turned into an armed uprising after months of attacks on protesters by security forces.

A resident of the central city of Homs, who asked to remain anonymous, said shells had landed on the Old City early on Tuesday.

Homs lies on the strategic north-south highway and parts of the ancient city have been leveled during months of clashes. Government forces ousted rebels from the city early last year but militants have slowly crept back in.

"The Old City is under siege. There is shelling from all sides," he said.

The opposition-linked Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based monitoring group, reported 160 people killed on the final day of 2012, including at least 37 government troops. The group's reports cannot be verified.

BOMBARDMENT

The civil war in Syria has become the longest and deadliest of the conflicts that rose out of the uprisings that swept through the Arab world over the past two years.

Many Sunni Muslims, the majority in Syria, back the rebellion, while Assad, who hails from the Shi'ite-derived Alawite minority sect, is backed by some minorities who fear revenge if he falls. His family has ruled Syria harshly since his father seized power in a coup 42 years ago.

Assad's forces have lately relied more on aerial and artillery bombardment, rather than infantry. Residential areas where rebels base themselves have been targeted, killing civilians unable to flee. Schools and queues of people buying bread have been hit.

Rebels have taken swathes of the north and the east but have struggled to hold cities, complaining that they are defenseless against Assad's Soviet-built air force.

A year ago, many diplomats and analysts predicted Assad would leave power in 2012. But he has proved resilient and none of his inner circle have defected. He still largely retains control of his armed forces.

Diplomatic efforts to end the war have faltered, with the rebels refusing to negotiate unless Assad leaves power and him pledging to fight until death.

Most Western and Arab states have called for him to leave power. He is supported by Russia and Shi'ite Iran.

In the final days of 2012, international mediator Lakhdar Brahimi called on countries to push the sides to talk, saying Syria faced a choice of "hell or the political process".

One Damascus resident, who asked not to be identified for security reasons, said the usual new year's eve crowds were absent from the increasingly isolated capital.

"There was hardly anyone on the streets, no cars, no pedestrians. Most restaurants, cafes and bars were empty," she said. Some young people gathered at three bars in the old city.

"There was music but nobody was dancing. They just sat there with a drink in their hands and smoking. I don't think I saw one person smile," she said. The midnight gunfire caused alarm.

"It was very scary. No one knew what was going on. People got very nervous and started making phone calls. But then I discovered that at least on my street, the gunfire was celebratory."

(Editing by Peter Graff and Alison Williams)

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40 couples start new year by renewing marriage vows

SINGAPORE: Forty couples chose to ring in the New Year with a difference.

They renewed their marriage vows in the presence of family and friends.

For the oldest couple of the night - it has been 60 years of marriage.

The event, "PAssionate Love by the Lake", aims to celebrate marriage and to bring families closer together.

It is organised by the Family Life Champions of Boon Lay, Clementi, Pioneer, Yew Tee and Yuhua divisions.

- CNA/fa

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BlackBerry 10 device appears at FCC

The BlackBerry model RFH121LW lands at the FCC.

(Credit:
Engadget)

In case you needed more clues that RIM's latest handsets based on the long-awaited BlackBerry 10 software are really just around the corner, you've got it. A new device, referred to as model RFH121LW, has now shown up within the FCC's official database. Tech site Engadget noticed RIM's mysterious gadget, along with another product called the RFF91LW which reportedly is cleared to operate on AT&T's LTE and GSM airwaves.

Details for the latest RFH121LW handset, I assume it is a phone though a new
tablet isn't a completely ridiculous notion (close but not quite), are non existent. There are no photos, specs, or network connections the device uses. Could it be the rumored BlackBerry Z10 or perhaps the BlackBerry 10L?

Unless another big leak occurs, we'll all have to sit tight until RIM's official BlackBerry 10 launch event in New York on January 30th. You can bet I'll be there in person to find out and see for myself.

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Pregnant U.S. woman missing in Afghanistan

KABUL The father of a pregnant American woman missing in Afghanistan has broken his silence over her disappearance to make a desperate plea for her safe return.

James Coleman, father of 27-year-old Caitlan Coleman, told The Associated Press his daughter was traveling with her Canadian husband when she vanished in early October. The last communication came from Caitlan's husband, Josh, who said he was in an Internet cafe on Oct. 8, in what he described as an "unsafe" part of Afghanistan. Caitlin was due to give birth in January.

An Afghan official has claimed the couple was kidnapped in Wardak province, west of the capital Kabul. So far, however, there has been no clear evidence they were abducted. Many insurgent groups operate in the area, but none have claimed responsibility for their disappearance, or demanded a ransom.

"I'm not sure whether they have been kidnapped by the Taliban or not," Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told CBS News on Monday. "We are still investigating."

The U.S. Embassy in Kabul would only confirm that it was in contact with Coleman's family and was "coordinating closely with the Canadian authorities."

"Due to privacy considerations we cannot provide additional information about the case," embassy spokesman David Snepp told CBS News in a written statement.

A spokesperson for the governor of Wardak province, Shahidulla Shahid, was also unable to shed much light on the couple's fate.

"We are aware that an American woman and her husband have disappeared," he told CBS News, "but our investigation has found no lead in the case."

James Coleman was at pains to even explain why his daughter was in the war-torn country to begin with. He described her to the AP as "naive" and "adventuresome," and suggested she and Josh might have been looking for an opportunity to start working for an aid agency.

Since Caitlan's disappearance, the family has become increasingly concerned about her health, as she needs regular medical attention for a liver condition.

"Our goal is to get them back safely and healthily," he said. "I don't know what kind of care they're getting or not getting. We're just an average family and we don't have good connections with anybody and we don't have a lot of money."

The couple started traveling last July, passing through Russia, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan before entering Afghanistan.

The country is generally deemed unsafe for tourists and the area where they vanished is particularly dangerous for foreigners. Last year a German tourist was killed while traveling through central Afghanistan and a Canadian tourist was kidnapped not far from where Caitlan and her husband were last heard from.

Caitlan's father said the couple liked to travel primarily in small villages, getting to know locals along the way, and had said they were "heading into the mountains" before they disappeared.

Had they done so, they would have faced danger not only from Taliban groups and criminal gangs, but also from the elements. Temperatures in Afghanistan have consistently dropped below freezing in recent weeks, and conditions in the mountains are particularly harsh at this time of year.

Caitlan's father is holding out hope for his daughter's safe return.

"We appeal to whoever is caring for her to show compassion and allow Caity, Josh and our unborn grandbaby to come home," he told the AP.

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Time's Up: Sides Closing In on 'Fiscal Cliff' Deal

Congressional and White House negotiators are closing in on a deal to avert across-the-board tax hikes and spending cuts that take effect at midnight, as the nation teeters on the edge of the so-called fiscal cliff.

An emerging tentative agreement would extend current tax rates for households making $450,000 or less; extend the estate tax at its current level of 35 percent for estates larger than $5 million; and prevent the Alternative Minimum Tax from hammering millions of middle-class workers, sources said.

The deal would also extend unemployment benefits set to expire Tuesday and avert a steep cut to Medicare payments for doctors.

Both sides also seem willing to delay by three months automatic spending cuts to defense and domestic programs, the sources said, setting the stage for continued fiscal debate in the next few months tied to the debt ceiling.

Vice President Joe Biden and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., are leading the negotiations, sources said, holding several "good" conversations late into Sunday night and continuing a dialogue early this morning.

They are trying to broker an elusive compromise on taxes and spending that can win the support of bipartisan majorities in the Senate and House.

Even if a deal is reached between Biden and McConnell, members in both chambers would still need to review it and vote on it later today. Passage is far from guaranteed.

"This is one Democrat that doesn't agree with that at all," Iowa Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin said of the tentative deal. "This is looking like a very bad deal the way this is shaping up."

Failure of Congress to act on a tax measure by Tuesday morning would trigger income tax hikes on all Americans. The average family would pay an extra $3,446 in 2013 under the higher rates, according to the Tax Policy Center.

Regardless of the "cliff," virtually all workers are due to see less in their paychecks starting in January when the temporary 2 percent payroll tax cut will expire.

More than $1 trillion in automatic spending cuts to defense and domestic programs will also begin to take effect later this week unless Congress delays or replaces them.

"It is absolutely inexcusable that all of us find ourselves in this place at this time," Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., said Sunday night on the Senate floor.

"Something has gone terribly wrong when the biggest threat to our American economy is our American Congress," he said, echoing a frustration shared by many Americans.

Republican and Democratic Senate leaders wrangled all weekend over the outlines of a deal, but those talks eventually hit a brick wall on GOP insistence that Social Security savings be included in a deal.

"I want everyone to know I'm willing to get this done, but I need a dance partner," McConnell said Sunday, noting that he had directly reached out to Biden to break the impasse.

As part of any deficit reduction deal, the White House wants to raise income tax rates on people making more than $250,000 a year, a threshold on which President Obama campaigned for re-election.

Republicans, caving on outright opposition to any tax increases, want a higher income threshold for the tax hike of around $450,000, sources said. They also want to prevent the estate tax from rising above its current 35 percent rate on estates of $5.1 million or more.

"There is still significant distance between the two sides, but negotiations continue," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada said Sunday evening. "There is still time to reach an agreement, and we intend to continue negotiations."

Both sides say the cost of failure is high.

"If we are not able to reach an agreement, it will be dire," Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., said Sunday on ABC's "This Week." "Probably at least another million jobs lost, an unemployment rate over 9 percent, and putting us back into recession."

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Assad's forces battle to retake Damascus suburb

AMMAN (Reuters) - Elite Syrian government troops backed by tanks battled on Monday to recapture a strategic Damascus suburb from rebels who have advanced within striking distance of the center of Syria's capital.

Five people, including a child, died from army rocket fire that hit the Daraya suburb during the fighting, opposition activists said. Daraya is part of a semi-circle of Sunni Muslim suburbs south of the capital that have been at the forefront of the 21-month-old revolt against President Bashar al-Assad.

"This is the biggest attack on Daraya in two months. An armored column is trying to advance but it is being held (back) by the Free Syrian Army," said Abu Kinan, an opposition activist in the area, referring to a rebel group.

Clashes were also reported near the airport in Aleppo, Syria's largest city, which is in the north. Insurgents have made that airport a target in the hope of limiting government access to Aleppo, which is largely under rebel control.

Rebels have taken much of the north and east of Syria over the past six months, but government forces still hold most of the densely populated southwest around the capital, the main north-south highway and the Mediterranean coast.

Government forces scored a victory on Saturday, pushing rebels out of Deir Baalbeh, a district in Homs, an important central city that straddles the highway linking Damascus with the north and the Mediterranean.

Some opposition activists have said scores or even hundreds of people were executed in Deir Baalbeh by troops that seized it after several days of fighting. However, reports of killings there on a large scale could not be verified.

More than 45,000 people are estimated to have been killed in the 21-month war, the longest and deadliest of the revolts that began throughout the Arab world two years ago. Mainly Sunni Muslim rebels are fighting to topple Assad, a member of the Alawite minority sect whose family has ruled Syria since his father seized power 42 years ago in a coup.

The opposition refuses to hold peace talks unless Assad relinquishes power, and military successes over the last six months have reinforced its belief it can drive him out by force.

However, government troops still heavily outgun the fighters and maintain air bases scattered across the country.

The Damascus suburbs have become one of the major fronts of the war, with the rebels hoping to finally bring their uprising to the capital, heart of Assad's power.

Activist Abu Kinan said that tens of thousands of civilians had fled Daraya during weeks of government assault on the suburb, but that 5,000 remained, along with hundreds of rebels. Daraya is located near the main southern highway connecting Damascus to the Jordanian border 85 km (50 miles) to the south.

Activists said Republican Guard forces are trying to push back rebels who have been slowly advancing from the outskirts of Damascus to within striking distance of government targets and central districts inhabited by Assad's Alawite minority sect.

Assad's forces have mostly relied on aerial and artillery bombardment, rather than infantry. Rebels have been able take outlying towns and have clashed with government troops near Damascus International Airport, halting flights by foreign airlines.

Another activist in Damascus with links to rebels, who did not want to be named, said Daraya has been a firing position for rebels using mortars and homemade rockets. From it, they have been able to hit a huge presidential complex located on a hilltop overlooking Damascus and target pro-Assad shabbiha militia in an Alawite enclave nearby known as Mezze 86.

"So far they have missed the palace but they are getting better. I think the regime has realized that it no longer can afford to have such a threat so close by, but it has failed to overrun Daraya before," he said.

"HELL OR THE POLITICAL PROCESS"

The opposition is backed by most Western and Arab states, while Assad has enjoyed the diplomatic protection of Moscow, which sells arms to his government and maintains a naval base in one of his ports.

Western countries have been searching for signs that Moscow is lifting its protection of Assad, hoping that would bring him down much as Russia's withdrawal of support heralded the fall of Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic 12 years ago.

Moscow said on Saturday that it has no power to make Assad leave office, and accused the rebels of prolonging the bloodshed by refusing to negotiate with him.

U.N. envoy Lakhdar Brahimi has called on outside powers to push all sides to talk, arguing that Syria faces a choice of "hell or the political process".

Brahimi is touting a peace plan agreed to in principle by international powers six months ago, but the plan does not explicitly call for Assad to be excluded from power, which the opposition regards as a precondition to any talks.

The opposition-linked Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that rebels clashed with government troops near Aleppo's international airport. Rami Abdelrahman, the British-based Observatory's director, told Reuters by phone that fighting flared on Sunday night and continued into Monday morning.

He said no flights were departing or arriving from the airport. Syria's state airline canceled at least one flight there over the weekend.

Nevertheless, the government's seizure of Deir Baalbeh in Homs is a reminder that its forces are still capable of recapturing territory from the lightly armed rebels. Syria's state news agency SANA said government forces seized a large cache of weapons and ammunition after capturing the district.

(Writing by Peter Graff; Editing by Oliver Holmes and Mark Heinrich)

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Morsi "not afraid" of falling Egyptian pound

CAIRO: President Mohamed Morsi has said the fall of the Egyptian pound, which is at an eight-year low against the dollar, does not worry him and expects a return to stability in the coming days, a report said on Monday.

The issue "does not worry us and we are not afraid. In a few days things will balance out," Morsi said late Sunday in comments reported by the official MENA.

"The market will return to stability."

The Egyptian pound fell to its lowest level since 2004 to 6.42 against the dollar in Monday trading, compared to 6.36 on Sunday, MENA said.

Egypt's central bank acknowledged on Saturday that its foreign currency reserves, which fell to US$15 billion from $36 billion in two years, were at a "critical minimum".

Egypt is reported to have extensively used its foreign currency reserves to support the pound and to ensure vital imports such as wheat and fuel.

The central bank has taken several measures to limit capital outflows such as the introduction of a tax on foreign exchange for individuals and capping daily withdrawals by foreign companies at US$30,000.

The Egyptian economy is facing a serious crisis since the fall of Hosni Mubarak in early 2011, including a decline in tourism receipts and a collapse in foreign investment.

The Egyptian government said on Sunday it will resume negotiations in January with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a loan of US$4.8 billion.

- AFP/xq

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Foursquare to show users' full names, share more data

Foursquare has begun notifying users of privacy policy updates that will begin making more user information and data public next month.

Beginning January 28, 2013, users' "full names" will be displayed across the check-in service and venue owners will have increased access to users' check-in data, the company announced in an e-mail sent to users late last night. It also published a document called "Privacy 101" to explain the new changes.

The service currently sometimes shows full names but often displays just users' first name and last initial -- except when looking up friends on the service.

"In the original versions of Foursquare, these distinctions made sense," Foursquare explained in its e-mail. "But we get emails every day saying that it's now confusing."

After the privacy policy changes take effect, all users' full names will be displayed everywhere across the service. However, users will still have control of the name displayed by altering their "full name" in their settings.

The policy changes will also give venue owners access to more recent data about user check-ins at the venue. Businesses on Foursquare currently have access to information about customers who checked in during the previous three hours; after January they will see more recent check-ins, although Foursquare didn't indicate how much more

"This is great for helping store owners identify their customers and give them more personal service or offers," Foursquare noted. "But a lot of businesses only have time to log in at the end of the day to look at it."

As with the "full name" setting, users can opt out of letting venue owners see their check-in information.

Foursquare's careful explanation of the new policies comes in the wake of an Instagram user revolt over new privacy policies that appeared to grant the Facebook-owned service perpetual rights to sell users' photographs without notifying or compensating the photographer. Instagram quickly backpedaled, with Instagram CEO Kevin Systrom apologizing for failing to clearly communicate the company's intentions.

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